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The industry group Chief Executive released the findings from a poll of 329 CEOs and business owners on Monday, Apr. 14. The survey showed growing alarm over Trump's escalating tariffs, which many fear will push the country into a downturn.
According to the survey, 62% of CEOs expect a recession over the next six months – the highest level in recent years and up from 48% in March.
"Tariffs and the uncertainty of next steps that will be taken by President Trump will lead to very difficult economic times over the next year or two," said Tim Zimmerman, president and CEO of Mitchell Metal Products.
CEOs' confidence in current business conditions fell to 4.6 out of 10, the lowest reading since the COVID-19 pandemic shut down the economy in March 2020. Their outlook for the next year stayed flat at 5.0 – a multi-year low not seen since 2012.
Many CEOs said Trump's tariff policies were directly fueling their concerns, with 76% warning that the trade war would hurt their businesses in 2025.
"This uncertainty needs to stop," said Donald Lloyd II, president and CEO of St. Claire HealthCare in Kentucky. "I support tariffs but believe they need to be applied strategically, not globally."
Signs of economic strain are already showing in CEO forecasts, with sharp drops in hiring plans, investment, and expected profits. Thirty-nine percent of CEOs said they plan to cut jobs in 2025 – a steep rise from just 11% in March.
Only 29% expect to add workers in 2025, down from 60% at the start of the year.
"Uncertainty is playing havoc with making decisions for us and our customers," said Denise McIntosh, CEO of Custom Powder Systems. "Never in my business experience have I seen such irresponsible government decisions coming from the White House with no pushback from elected representatives."
President Donald Trump during a Cabinet meeting on April 10, 2025.
Other forecasts for the year ahead also worsened.
The survey found that 44% of CEOs expect revenues to fall, up from 29% in March. Forty-eight percent expect profits to decline, up from 33% in March, while 41% plan to cut capital expenditures, an increase from 29% in March.
The survey also said that 81% of CEOs expect costs for goods, services, and labor to rise in 2025, with about half expecting those price hikes to be in the double digits.
"Although I am in support of moving more manufacturing back to the US, this is not how to do it," said Peter Ensch, CEO of Sani-Matic. "Initiating a trade war with our closest allies and business partners is simply bad business.
"The President is absolutely clueless about the amount of time it will take to accomplish this. He also appears to not understand that changing his mind every other day also increases uncertainty that does not support stability for making long-term capital investments in facilities, tooling and training a new workforce."
Trump's tariff policies – including raising tariffs on China to 145% and threatening additional duties on key imports – have triggered wild swings in global markets and increased the risk of a downturn, CEOs said.
Some CEOs fear the economic turmoil will last well beyond 2025.
"I hope I'm wrong, but I expect the 'pain' to be here for a while," said Maura Dunn, president and CEO of TrailBlazer Consulting. "I do not trust the administration to self-correct."
Despite the growing fears, a slim majority of CEOs – 51 percent – still expect conditions to improve over the next year, though most said the rebound would be modest.
"Short-term pain will result in long-term gains," said Tom McGuire, CEO of Air Hydro Power. "We have to be put on a level playing field in world economy."
Others are preparing for a prolonged downturn.
"No rules to play by, so how could you possibly forecast?" said one anonymous CEO who rates current conditions a two out of 10.
"The tariff effort has been a train wreck," added another unnamed CEO.
Consumer confidence is also plummeting, according to the University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers. That survey found that Americans now expect prices to climb 6.7% over the next year.
Inflation concerns have also spiked to their highest level since 1981, Michigan's survey said.
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